North star
The invariants the work is built on.
A person proposes what to measure. The data decides what predicts. Everything below follows from that, and each line opens onto the reasoning behind it.
What counts as true
How a result earns the right to be believed.
- 01Proof before beliefIntuition proposes. Measurement decides.
- 02The default is no edgeEvery positive result carries the burden of proof.
- 03Judge only what could have been tradedWe measure at prices someone could actually have had, after cost.
- 04Only what was knowable at the timeNothing borrows from the future.
- 05Unseen data is spent onceSearching is a screen. Confirmation happens once, on data nobody has searched.
- 06Every look is countedEach pass over the data spends some credibility.
- 07We do not run tests that cannot answerSome questions cannot be settled with the data at hand.
- 08Measure outcomes, not activityIdeas tested and features built are not results.
Where edge comes from
What we look for, and what we refuse to assume.
- 09Edge is discovered, not designedA person proposes what to measure. The data decides what predicts.
- 10Many small edges, combinedNo single measurement is the insight.
- 11Every edge has a counterpartyWe name who is on the other side, and why they are wrong.
- 12The market is taken outA result is what is left once the tide is removed.
- 13Stability counts as much as sizeA small edge that holds beats a large one that comes and goes.
- 14Condition on context, never discard itEvery claim carries the kind of market it was measured in.
How the practice runs
The habits that keep the work honest as it grows.
- 15Influence is earned and can be lostWeight follows the evidence, and goes when the evidence goes.
- 16What was turned down is dataWe keep what we refused, and study what failed.
- 17Nothing is overwrittenEvery result can be reproduced.
- 18Every source clears the same barA new kind of data gets no exemption.
- 19The vocabulary is the modelA term has one meaning, because a loose word hides a loose idea.
- 20Question first, delete second, simplify thirdSpeed and automation come last.
How risk is held
The limits that sit above every forecast.